Market Data 
If you work on Capitol Hill, your boss might prohibit you from betting on prediction markets pretty soon.
“It’s something we’ve talked about internally,” Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut told Business Insider. “We haven’t put out any official guidance, but you know, that certainly seems like it would make sense.”
Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton of Massachusetts recently became the first member of Congress to publicly announce that he would ban his staff from making bets on platforms like Kalshi or Polymarket.
He told Business Insider that he’s received plaudits from other lawmakers in both parties, including some who approached him in the House gym.
“I’ve never put something out and had more immediate response from a bipartisan group of members than this,” Moulton said. “People on both sides of the aisle recognize this is credibly corrupt, and we need to take action to stop it. The first thing we should do is police our own.”
Effective today, Congressman Moulton is instituting an office-wide policy prohibiting his congressional staff from participating in prediction market platforms, such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
The following is a statement from Congressman Moulton on this policy. pic.twitter.com/svbrFPYHJN
— Rep. Seth Moulton Press Office (@RepMoulton) March 25, 2026
Amid a broad array of concerns in Washington about prediction markets, lawmakers have introduced a flurry of new bills that include both changes to the types of markets that platforms are allowed to offer and restrictions on government officials’ ability to trade.
The bills vary widely in scope, ranging from measures to tackle insider trading to broader efforts to rein in an industry Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has likened to Big Tobacco.
“I hold myself to a high standard, and we hold our operation to that standard,” the New York Democrat told Business Insider, saying that she believed her current office policies would likely already prohibit prediction market trading but that “it doesn’t hurt to really refine the letter on it.”
Yet none of those legislative proposals appear close to becoming law, particularly as the Trump administration takes a friendly approach toward the industry.
In the absence of legislation, lawmakers are left to enforce ethics rules in their own offices.
There’s no hard evidence that prediction market trading is rampant among Capitol Hill staff — concerns have tended to center around the White House, given well-timed trades around recent actions in Iran and Venezuela.
The White House has denied that any staff are getting rich from prediction market trades, but in March, the administration did warn White House staffers against making prediction market trades.
“All federal employees are subject to government ethics guidelines that prohibit the use of nonpublic information for financial benefit,” White House spokesman Davis Ingle said.
Still, there are ways that Capitol Hill staff could theoretically benefit from inside information to reap major profits, including on prediction markets about the length and likelihood of government shutdowns or what their boss is likely to say in a major public appearance.
Democratic Rep. Greg Casar of Texas, the sponsor of a bill that would ban prediction markets that are considered vulnerable to insider trading, indicated he saw little need to lay out an official ban in his office.
“If I go and put a policy in, or not, I don’t think it makes any difference, because they just don’t do it,” Casar said of his staff. “I don’t think it’s anything that they should be allowed to do, nor is it anything I think they would consider doing.”
Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon, who introduced a bill to ban lawmakers from trading on prediction markets, told Business Insider that he’d prefer to see Congress start there.
“I think it’d be very powerful for Congress to start with the people who are at the top of the food chain, which is the members themselves,” Merkley said. “If Congress is willing to go even further and ban top staff from trading, I would support that.”
And Republican Sen. Todd Young of Indiana, who introduced a bill to require lawmakers and staff to disclose their prediction market trades, said that idea is “appropriate, at least for starters,” but that “we’ll take it from there.”
“I’d be open to other good government reforms,” Young said.
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