Market Data 
By Nicole Jao and Lisa Baertlein
NEW YORK/LOS ANGELES, April 14 (Reuters) – The more than 3 million U.S. truckers who move goods for everything from grocery stores to factories to construction sites are grappling with the highest diesel prices in years, compounding pressure on the industry as Iran war-related oil price spikes also threaten to weaken freight demand.
Diesel is the second-largest operating expense for truckers and the national average retail price has jumped $1.89, or 50%, since the start of the Iran war effectively halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy flows. prices, which underpin diesel and gasoline, also surged, driving up transportation costs and prices for many consumer goods.
Experts warned there was no relief in sight as diesel prices in logistics hubs including California and Texas hit all-time highs and a ceasefire announced last week by the U.S. and Iran looked fragile.
Trucking is a barometer of how the U.S. economy is doing. In 2024, the industry moved 11.3 billion tons of freight – nearly three-quarters of the national total, including manufactured and retail goods – and generated $906 billion in revenue, according to American Trucking Associations.
As of Monday, U.S. fleets on average spent $5.52 per gallon on diesel, surpassing the prior all-time high of $5.50 set in June 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, according to data from fleet management technology provider Samsara. The firm’s fuel spend data, which accounts for discounts and surcharges, is from more than 5,500 fleets of all sizes across the entire U.S. and represents nearly 1 billion gallons of fuel purchases.
“Not one firm had $5.60 a gallon diesel on their proverbial budget bingo card for 2026,” said Jason Miller, a supply chain professor at Michigan State University.
Delivery firm , which also operates one of the nation’s largest trucking firms, said the fallout from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran could weigh on fourth-quarter performance if soaring fuel costs prompt customers to pull back.
SMALL FIRMS HIT HARDEST
A March poll from DAT Freight & Analytics shows 18% of over 540 surveyed trucking firms had halted operations due to the spike in fuel prices. About 44% of the firms, which were of various sizes from across the U.S., were being more selective about load weights and about 45% were driving fewer miles.
U.S. trucking is dominated by small businesses. As of June 2025, there were almost 580,000 active U.S. motor carriers registered, with 91.5% of those operating 10 or fewer trucks, ATA said, citing Department of Transportation data.
The surge in diesel prices has wiped out profits for most small carriers and owner-operators from December, January and February, DAT’s principal analyst Dean Croke said in a market update, adding most other operators are still slightly above breakeven.
Heather Hickson Griffith, a former Marine who has more than a decade of experience behind the wheel of a big rig, is paying up to $8 per gallon in California – a price that is eating through her savings faster than during the 2022 fuel-price spike.
As a result, the Oklahoma-based heavy equipment hauler has stopped eating at restaurants to help save money. Her husband Daniel Griffith is running cargoes on the East Coast, where fuel is cheaper. GKZ Trucking, their small company of 21 owner-operators, does not have the heft of large trucking firms to recoup higher fuel costs – and is more vulnerable to cash flow and profit squeezes when prices soar.
Independent drivers like Hickson Griffith often pay out-of-pocket for fuel and can have trouble convincing customers to reimburse them when prices rise. Large companies, on the other hand, often negotiate volume discounts from fuel sellers and use surcharges to claw back higher fuel costs from clients.
Without relief, Hickson Griffith said, “By the end of the year I am going to be hurting to the point of no return.”
Soaring diesel prices could force thousands of small operators out of business, worsening already tight trucking capacity, said Avery Vise, vice president of trucking at FTR Transportation Intelligence.
Freight rates are expected to rise even more sharply than in 2022, Vise said.
Transportation accounts for a small portion of the overall cost of goods – but can top 20% for staples like milk, researchers at Texas A&M Transportation Institute found.
So far, inflation is lagging levels seen in the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war energy shock, when pandemic-related supply chain disruptions and massive federal spending contributed to soaring prices.
RISK OF FURTHER PRICE RISES
Nevertheless, high fuel prices have become a political headache for President Donald Trump and his Republican Party as midterm elections near.
States including California, Hawaii, Nevada, North Carolina and Texas have reported diesel prices hitting record highs since the Middle East conflict escalated.
The jump in diesel prices has far outpaced rises in gasoline, said Kelly Soderlund, Samsara’s head of insights, adding the two prices rose in tandem during the early days of the Ukraine war. That means today’s fuel prices are hitting the trucking industry harder than everyday consumers, she said.
Motorists should prepare for another round of price surges after ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran yielded no agreement over the weekend, sending oil prices sharply higher, said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.
“The move toward a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is compounding global supply concerns and risks further disrupting flows,” he said.
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