Is Europe’s energy debate shifting from affordability to security? By Investing.com

Investing.com — Europe’s energy crisis has kept electricity bills painfully high across the continent, but Goldman Sachs analysts say the policy debate is on the verge of a significant turn, away from protecting consumers from high prices and toward securing energy supply long-term.

The ongoing crisis drove up commodity and power prices across Europe, with the sharpest increases in Italy, the United Kingdom and Germany, where gas plants largely set power prices, according to a note dated Monday.

Countries with larger shares of renewables, such as Spain, or nuclear power, such as France and the Nordic nations, saw less pronounced increases.

“Energy Affordability concerns will normalize upon the normalization in the current energy crunch,” the brokerage said. “At that stage, the energy policy focus might quickly shift towards Energy Security.”

Some governments have already moved to cap or lower electricity bills. Italy and the United Kingdom are among those attempting such interventions, though Goldman cautioned the measures are unlikely to lower power prices below long-term expectations of around €60/MWh.

A €10 per megawatt-hour drop in power prices would have uneven effects on European utilities’ earnings, with the impact ranging from minimal to severe depending on the company, a research note said. 

Assuming current hedging policies remain in place, the hit to 2027 net income is estimated at around 1% for , and , but could reach as much as 13% for , highlighting differing levels of exposure across the sector.

Without hedging, the earnings hit would be significantly larger, the note said. Fortum could see net income fall by as much as 22%, while and face declines of about 15% and 16%, respectively.

Across the 15 companies analysed, the average impact with hedging in place is estimated at a 2% drop in net income for a €5 per megawatt-hour price move and 5% for a €10 move. 

Without hedges, the average declines deepen to around 3% and 8%, respectively, underscoring the role of hedging in cushioning price swings.

Despite the near-term earnings pressure, the analysts said the fundamental impact on equity valuations would likely be “more muted,” citing two reasons: the measures are expected to be short-lived, consistent with precedent set in 2022 and with a recent European Commission paper, and they are unlikely to push prices below the €60/MWh long-term floor.

Goldman said it remains “buy”-rated on RWE and , and views any share price weakness as a potential entry point. 

Uncertainty in the United Kingdom could weigh on and Centrica in the near term, and to a lesser degree on RWE, and Iberdrola, the note said. 

“For Enel, we see less of a risk as the company has already provided above-consensus guidance to 2030, fully incorporating the impact of the energy decree law,” the brokerage said. 

The analysts described utilities as being in the early stages of a “Generational Earnings Super-Cycle” that would drive higher profits beyond current consensus expectations.