Iran peace talk hopes in focus; TSMC reports

Investing.com – Futures linked to the main U.S. indices rise, with traders keeping tabs on rumors around a fresh round of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. Mediators continue to try to hash out a deal to extend a temporary ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices remain below $100 a barrel despite inching higher. Elsewhere, China’s economy grows by more than anticipated in the first quarter, while net profit at contract chipmaking titan surges to a new peak.

1. Futures tick higher

U.S. stock futures pointed higher on Thursday, buoyed by growing optimism around talks to forge a permanent ceasefire in the Middle East as well as upbeat early commentary from quarterly corporate earnings.

By 03:38 ET (07:38 GMT), the Dow futures contract had gained 56 points, or 0.1%, futures had risen by 15 points, or 0.2%, and futures had climbed by 114 points, or 0.4%. Beyond the U.S., Japan’s touched a fresh all-time peak, while stocks in Europe edged up.

The benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite both advanced in the previous session, touching record highs, thanks in large part to hopes that the Iran conflict may be soon be reaching a resolution.

Meanwhile, a series of executives from major Wall Street banks described the American economy as largely resilient in the face of an energy shock caused by the effective shuttering of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway off of Iran’s southern coast through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil flows.

“[W]hile it’s still early in the [calendar first-quarter] reporting season, and the full fallout from the Iran war hasn’t been felt yet in the economy, we’ve been positively surprised by corporate results thus far, especially the ‘status quo’ messaging from bank CEOs,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note.

More key earnings are due out later today, as the U.S. reporting period picks up the pace. Beverage maker is set to unveil results before the opening bell, followed by streaming giant after the close of U.S. markets.

2. Iran peace talk hopes

The analysts added that an impending extension to a detente between the U.S. and Iran is now the “consensus view” among investors, so much so that they expect continued headlines around a potential deal “will lose their ability to rally the market.”

While there has yet to be formal ceasefire deal, media reports have painted a picture of peace efforts that appear to be making progress.

Washington and Tehran have agreed in principle to hold fresh talks, after an initial round of negotiations last weekend in Pakistan did not yield an immediate deal, according to the Wall Street Journal. Citing officials familiar with the matter, the paper said both sides have not set a time or venue for the meeting.

Vice President JD Vance is due to lead the American delegation in any future discussions with the Iranians, the WSJ said.

U.S. President Donald Trump has also said talks between Israel and Lebanon will take place later today. Citing Lebanese officials, the Financial Times has reported that a ceasefire between the two combatants, which have threatened to derail the U.S.-Iran truce, is expected “soon.”

3. Oil sits below $100 a barrel

Still, signs of friction remained, most notably over an ongoing U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. A top military commander in Iran has warned Washington not to continue the blockade, which U.S. Central Command has claimed has not been evaded by any Iranian-linked commercial ships and oil tankers.

Other reports suggested that some vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz this week. Reuters also reported that Iran could consider allowing ships to sail freely through the Omani side of the strait without risk of attack, as part of a peace deal.

Against this backdrop, oil prices rose marginally, sitting below the $100 threshold but still well above pre-war levels, as traders gauge the impact of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But, for the week, crude was nursing steep losses, with any upside largely quashed by hopes of easing U.S.-Iran tensions.

4. China’s first-quarter growth tops forecasts

China’s economy grew more than expected in the first quarter of 2026, aided by strong export demand and as domestic consumption also picked up from years of underperformance.

GDP grew 5% year-on-year, at the upper end of Beijing’s annual target.

The print helped spur some optimism over oil demand in the world’s largest crude importer, although a host of other readings showed economic momentum slowed towards the end of the first quarter. The outlook for China’s economy also remained uncertain in the face of the Iran war, especially given that Beijing imports much of its crude from Tehran.

5. TSMC reports

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, or TSMC, clocked a stronger-than-expected first-quarter profit on Thursday as the world’s largest contract chipmaker continued to benefit from outsized artificial intelligence demand.

But the company warned of a potential impact to its profitability due to disruptions in chemical and energy supplies stemming from the war in the Middle East, although such an impact appeared unlikely in the near-term.

TSMC posted a record-high net profit of T$572.48 billion ($18.15 billion) for the three months to March 31, beating Bloomberg estimates of T$542.38 billion. Income jumped 58.3% from the same period last year.

The strong profit came largely on the back of a 35% increase in revenue, which grew to T$1.134 trillion in the first quarter.