IMF director says shock from US-Iran War is already ‘baked’ into the economy

War has ravaged the Middle East for 43 days, but the damage could take years to repair.

Kristalina Georgieva, the director of the International Monetary Fund, said the impact of the Iran war is already “baked” into the economy on CBS News’ “Face the Nation ” on Sunday.

She tallied the conflict’s hits to energy: sitting tankers that can’t move to their destinations, dozens of energy infrastructure sites hit across the Gulf, and missile and drone attacks on Qatari gas fields that will take years to repair.

“We are going to see some drag of this crisis over the year, but if we have peace, of course, conditions are likely to improve faster,” she said.

The prospect of peace looked promising on Tuesday evening, as President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire deal with Iran. The deal marked a turning point and eased investor fears of a prolonged conflict that could drive oil prices higher, fuel inflation, and push the US toward a recession.

The immediate reaction from investors was relief. On Tuesday, stocks climbed, while bond yields and oil prices fell. Both Brent crude and US oil dropped. Brent crude settled at $94.50 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate closed at $95.98.

But by Sunday, negotiations fell through, and Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — a crucial shipping channel. Oil prices topped $100 a barrel when the markets reopened at 6 p.m. in New York.

“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” he said in a post on Truth Social on Sunday.

The ongoing conflict has driven up gas prices, which reached an average of $4 a gallon on March 31.