Market Data 
April 13 (Reuters) – The path of least resistance for crude oil prices continues to remain upward as long as flows through the Strait of Hormuz stay restricted, UBS said in a note on Monday as it raised its Brent crude prices forecasts.
The bank increased its Brent price forecast to $100 a barrel by the end of June 2026, $95 by the end of September, and $90 by the end of December. It also expects Brent to trade at $85 a barrel by the end of March 2027.
“There is elevated uncertainty in respect to these forecasts depending on how the conflict evolves, what energy infrastructure is disrupted, and when flows through the strait resume,” it noted.
A prolonged disruption would raise the risk of a short-term price overshoot, with Brent potentially trading above $150 a barrel, while heightening the likelihood of demand destruction, UBS said.
It added that scarcity-driven hoarding could further amplify price swings.
Brokerage/ Brent WTI Forecasts Price
Agency as of Targets
2026 2027 2026 202
7
Goldman $83 $80 $78 $75 April 9, Trims 2Q
Sachs ($85 ($79 2026 2026
previo previ Brent, WTI
usly) ously forecast
) to $90/$87
ANZ $92 %76 $88 $76 April 9,
2026
UBS – – – – April 13, Expects
2026 prices
to trade
>$150/bbl
if flows
through
Hormuz
remain
disrupted.
Sees Brent
at
$100/bbl
by
end-June
2026, $95
by
end-Sept,
$90 by
end-Dec
Macquarie $89.28 $74.50 $82.9 $70 March 27 If the war
3 .50 continues
until end
of June,
oil prices
may rise
to $200
Morgan – $80 – – March 24, Expects
Stanley ($70 2026 Brent
previo prices to
usly) remain
above
$80/bbl
for the
rest of
2026
J.P Morgan – $72 – – March 20, Expects
2026 Brent
prices
averaging
$100/bbl
in Q2’26,
$90/bbl in
Q3’26 and
$80/bbl in
Q4’26
Standard $85.50 Expects
Chartered ($70 Brent to
previo average
usly) $78/bbl in
Q1’26, and
$98/bbl in
Q2’26
BofA $77.50 $66 – $61 March 16, Expects
($61 ($62 ($5 2026 Brent to
previo previo 9 average
usly) usly) pre $80/bbl in
vio Q2’26, but
usl average
y) $76/bbl in
Q3’26
Barclays $85 – – – March 13, But if the
(from 2026 Strait of
$65 Hormuz
previo takes 4-6
usly) weeks to
The normalise,
foreca says Brent
st could
assume climb to
s the $100/bbl
Strait
of
Hormuz
normal
ises
in 2-3
weeks
BMI $70 $70 $68 $68 March 12, Expects
($67 2026 Brent to
previo average
usly) $67/bbl
and
$69/bbl in
Q3’26 and
Q4’26,
respective
ly.
Citi $71 $64 $68($ $61 March 11, Anticipate
($63 60 2026 s Brent
previo previ averaging
usly) ously $75/bbl in
) Q1’26,
$78/bbl in
Q2’26, and
$68/bbl in
Q3’26
HSBC $80 $70($6 $76($ $67 March 10,
($65 6 61 ($6 2026
previo previo previ 3
usly) usly) ously pre
) vio
usl
y)
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