Bulls vs. Bears Ahead Of FOMC Week

$XRP is trading near $1.35, down 1.9% today though still up 4.7% over the past week. The token is testing a level that mattered heading into the weekend, last week’s key support zone around $1.355, and slipping below it now, though not decisively enough yet to call the setup broken.

According to a crypto analyst tracking $XRP’s structure, the token has held below its short and medium-term average price levels since Friday, a shift that technically points toward $1.25 as the next logical target if weakness continues. Taken purely on structure, that’s a mildly bearish signal.

But the analyst was careful not to overstate it. Wider support still sits between $1.29 and $1.32, and selling pressure behind the pullback doesn’t look particularly aggressive.

$XRP’s strength relative to Bitcoin has pulled back over the past week too, but remains range-bound rather than trending downward, a pattern mirrored in $XRP’s own price action.

Why This Week’s Fed Meeting Complicates the Picture

The Fed’s policy meeting lands Wednesday, and markets are now pricing an 87% probability of a rate hike, up sharply from just 59% a week earlier. Historically, entering this kind of week with some bearish pressure already priced in tends to produce a less negative reaction than entering it euphoric and bullish, since overly bullish setups heading into major Fed meetings have historically seen worse outcomes both immediately after the announcement and in the days that follow.

Order flow data adds a mixed layer too. Funding rates have dropped sharply as new short positions pile in, though they haven’t turned negative yet. The analyst said $XRP appears to be trending toward negative funding while price sits at $1.34, a combination that historically can set up a bounce rather than confirm further downside.

Bullish Counterpoint

Not everyone reads the setup as bearish. Analyst Ali Charts is watching for a very different outcome, arguing that as long as $XRP holds the $1.31 to $1.35 support zone, the token could be building toward a breakout. The important level to watch, according to Ali Charts, is $1.38. A decisive close above that resistance could confirm a bullish breakout and open the door toward $1.60.

Conclusion

$XRP’s structure leans mildly bearish heading into this week, but neither order flow nor fundamentals currently support a break below the $1.29-$1.32 support zone. A bounce from current levels remains the more likely near-term scenario, according to the structural read, while a clean break above $1.38 would flip the setup toward $1.60 instead.

With an 87% probability of a rate hike now priced in and Wednesday’s Fed decision looming, $XRP’s next real move may depend more on how markets react to that outcome than on the charts alone.