Bitcoin’s ceasefire boost is starting to fizzle out as investors look for real-world results

Bitcoin’s price action signals the momentum from U.S.–Iran ceasefire headlines is fading and markets are looking for substantive progress that could unwind war-driven stress across the global economy.

The largest cryptocurrency briefly topped $76,000 early today, only to fall back in a repeat of Tuesday’s choppy pattern. The stall follows a 10% climb, predominantly driven by news of the Iran-U.S. ceasefire from a week ago.

However, while optimism persists and President Donald Trump suggests the conflict is nearing an end, progress in negotiations to restore oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that accounted for 20% of global flows before the war began, remains limited.

“A ceasefire extension alone is no longer enough. Markets need tangible progress such as restored energy flows, compression in crude premia, and clearer disinflation,” QCP Capital, one of the largest digital asset market makers in the world, said in an email.

“Until then, this remains a story of partial normalization rather than full repair. Constructive, but not yet comfortable.”

Traders should keep an eye on oil prices, as signs of normalization are likely to be evident in energy markets first. WTI recently traded near the weekly low of $87.50 and Brent around $90, a level it has held since April 8.

The continued decline in bitcoin and ether’s 30-day implied volatility indexes suggests traders expect material progress soon.

In the meantime, solana (SOL) and could see increased volatility as open futures contracts tied to these tokens have climbed to multiweek highs. The increases point to rising demand for leveraged exposure, which often amplifies price swings through liquidations and heightened market turbulence.

“Solana has significantly outperformed the market over the last day, attempting to bounce off an important long-term support line, but failing to do so for over two months now,” Alex Kuptsikevich, the chief market analyst at the FxPro, said in an email. “We will only be able to declare a victory for the bulls once it has consolidated above the $105 level, at which point we can talk about a return above the 200-week moving average.”

In traditional markets, the MOVE index, which measures the volatility in U.S. Treasury notes, has declined to 65%, reversing the war-led spike to 115% in March. This is bullish for risk assets as stability in the U.S. bond market, which underpins global finance, helps ease credit and financial conditions. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

What’s trending

• Europe-led coalition prepares mission to reopen Strait of Hormuz (eurones): More than 40 countries are meeting in Paris to finalize plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Countries say they are ready to send warships, personnel and mine-removal support.
• Wall Street turns gloomy on the dollar as haven demand fades (Bloomberg): Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo among banks saying the dollar’s war-driven haven rally is probably over as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire prompts investors to seek riskier assets.
• European stocks mixed as Iran war stays in focus (CNBC): European shares traded mixed as Middle East tensions continue to weigh on investor sentiment.
• Bitcoin bulls target $125,000 as U.S.-Iran peace talks trigger risk-on mood (CoinDesk): “Funding rates this negative tell you the market is heavily short,” an analyst said. If BTC continues rising despite that, the price could hit $125,000 within 60 days if the short base gets squeezed out.

Today’s signal

The chart shows bitcoin’s hourly price action in candlestick format since March 31, highlighting a steady upward trajectory that has carried the asset from roughly $65,700 to around $76,000. The chart looks bullish with consistently higher lows, but there is a catch.

Within this uptrend, the price has briefly topped $76,000 at least twice, and both attempts have failed to produce a decisive breakout. From a technical analysis perspective, this indicates a developing double-top pattern, where two peaks form near the same level, signaling potential exhaustion in bullish momentum.

If the price dips below $73,300, the low formed between the two peaks, the double top pattern would be confirmed, suggesting scope for a deeper decline to $70,000.

Conversely, a sustained move above $76,000 could draw in more traders and strengthen the case for a rally to $88,000.